Bariatric surgery vs. GLP-1 receptor agonists among primarily medicare and medicaid patients with diabetes: a 3-year analysis.
Brown. Avery A; Patel. Suhani S SS; Li. Elizabeth E; Vu. Alexander Hien AH; Somoza. Eduardo E; Chen. Jialin J; Zhang. Donglan D; Massie. Allan B AB; Orandi. Babak J BJ; Segev. Dorry D; Parikh. Manish M; Chhabra. Karan K
Key Findings
- Bariatric surgery resulted in ~22.9% total weight loss at 3 years, far exceeding the ~2.3% seen with any GLP‑1RA use.
- Even with 12 months of continuous GLP‑1RA treatment, weight loss was only ~2.4%, compared to ~15.9% for surgery over the same period.
- The advantage of surgery persisted across all measured time points from 3 months to 3 years in publicly insured obese T2D patients.
Practical Outcomes
- GLP‑1RAs like semaglutide can help with modest weight loss, but they are not a substitute for the dramatic reductions seen with bariatric surgery. Expect about 2‑3% loss on medication alone and plan lifestyle or additional interventions accordingly. If maximal weight loss is the goal and you can manage surgical risks and costs, bariatric surgery remains the more effective option.
Summary
In a large U.S. study of obese, type‑2 diabetic patients on Medicare or Medicaid, bariatric surgery caused about 23% body‑weight loss after three years, while weekly semaglutide or tirzepatide only produced roughly 2‑3% loss, even when taken continuously for a year. The surgery group was younger and more often female and Hispanic, but after adjusting for these differences the weight‑loss advantage remained clear.
Abstract
Bariatric surgery has long been established as an effective treatment option for obesity and diabetes [Kalainov et al. in J Am Acad Orthop Surg [32(10):427-438, 2025] and Ogden et al. in JAMA 311(8):806-806, 2025. 10.1001/jama.2014.732]. Recently, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists' (GLP-1RAs) use has expanded as an alternative therapy for weight loss and diabetes management. While GLP1RAs are known to be safe and effective, few have compared long term outcomes of GLP-1RAs versus the "gold standard" of bariatric surgery among Medicare/Medicaid patients, who make up the largest payer group in the U.S. [Kalainov et al. in J Am Acad Orthop Surg [32(10):427-438, 2025]. This was a retrospective, multicenter study of obese, type-2 diabetic patients (T2D) ≥ 18 years old, who initiated weekly injectable semaglutide or tirzepatide or underwent bariatric surgery between January 1st, 2018 to July 31st, 2024. Patients with a baseline BMI ≤ 35, those with prior GLP1-RA use, or any prior bariatric procedure were excluded from analysis. The primary outcome of interest was % total body weight loss 3 months to 3 years post intervention among bariatrics surgery patients vs. GLP1-RA patients (any GLP1-RA prescription and 12 months continuous GLP1-RA prescription). 7667 patients were included for analysis (7200 GLP1-RA, 467 bariatric surgery). Bariatric surgery patients were younger (median (IQR): 43 (34, 53) vs. 65 (54, 72); p < 0.001) and more likely to be female (67.5% vs. 60.8%; p < 0.01) and Hispanic (58.7% vs. 19.4%; p < 0.001) while GLP1-RA users were more likely to be white (58.5% vs. 10.7%; p < 0.001). In models adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, bariatric surgery was associated with a 22.9% total weight loss 3 years following surgery compared to 2.3% for patients with any GLP1-RA use, and 15.9% vs 2.4% for patients with 12 months consecutive GLP1-RA use (22.9 [21.0-24.8] vs 2.3 [0.5-4.1], 15.9 [6.9-24.9] vs. 2.4 [6.7-11.5]. Among obese, T2D, publicly insured patients, bariatric surgery was associated with greater weight loss than GLP1-RAs at all measured periods from 3 months to 3 years post op.
Study Information
pubmed
2025
2025-12-01T00:00:00.000Z
10.1007/s00464-025-12403-y
11